Forecast Geopolitical Outcomes
Progress Humanity funds, produces and publishes a wide array of forecasts using predictive algorithms and traditional data driven approaches. Early warning forecasts are available to the public. Approaches include following:
- Econometric-Statistical Modeling – This is standard in the field of economics and political science, but is often not communicated in a language people can understand. It is not always predictive, but is a standard approach for describing causes and factors for issues beyond qualitative theories or opinions.
- Decision-Science Modeling – This approach allows us to model the decision calculus of key players and groups involved in a policy issue. We do this by identifying key stakeholder preferences and applying principles of decision science and game theory to describe why they made certain decisions in the past and what they are likely to decide in the future based on their options and preferences.
- Agent-Based Game-Theoretic Computer Simulations – We use computer simulation to identify the range of stakeholders involved in any particular issue. We then apply a range of well-tested approaches (Monte Carlo methods, expected utility calculations, robustness testing) to estimate or predict accurately how stakeholder positions and outcomes will ultimately evolve.